World Supply and Demand

World Supply and Demand Table -- Demand Balance
(in 1,000 metric tons)
Current: Nov. 12, 1998

This table is displayed in three parts for easier viewing and printing: Part 1 (1960/61-1972/73),
Part 2 (1973/74-1985/86) and Part 3 (1986/87-1998/99).

Part 1 (1960/61-1972/73)

Year	1960/61	1961/62	1962/63	1963/64	1964/65	1965/66	1966/67	1967/68	1968/69	1969/70	1970/71	1971/72	1972/73
Area Harvest (1000 HA)	316,279	315,569	314,541	319,724	315,399	313,486	315,341	319,067	317,754	322,615	323,299	324,483	317,538
Yields (MT/HA)	1.39	1.37	1.43	1.42	1.46	1.51	1.61	1.67	1.68	1.73	1.73	1.90	1.87
Production (1000 MT)	439,386	432,259	448,634	455,167	460,596	472,471	508,889	533,493	533,897	558,080	559,241	617,439	594,243
Begin Stocks (1000 MT)	102,781	109,765	103,597	101,412	106,059	98,102	80,319	83,283	94,374	97,806	97,811	83,527	99,571
Total Supply (1000 MT)	542,167	542,024	552,231	556,579	566,655	570,573	589,208	616,776	628,271	655,886	657,052	700,966	693,814

Mktng. Year Imports (1000 MT)	23,863	30,536	31,983	35,387	34,916	41,449	43,209	43,058	40,780	43,422	50,036	55,207	65,103
Mktng. Year Exports (1000 MT)	25,600	34,015	32,736	36,322	37,721	47,333	43,724	44,204	40,728	48,264	54,282	58,150	69,012

Disappearance Feed (1000 MT)	264,262	261,008	265,411	268,912	281,531	300,187	317,981	327,337	335,936	352,457	354,415	387,027	399,640
Disappear. Non- Feed (1000 MT)	168,140	177,545	185,408	181,608	187,022	190,067	187,944	195,065	194,529	205,618	219,110	214,368	212,976
Disappearance Total (1000 MT)	432,402	438,553	450,819	450,520	468,553	490,254	505,925	522,402	530,465	558,075	573,525	601,395	612,616

End Stocks (1000 MT)	109,765	103,597	101,412	106,059	98,102	80,319	83,283	94,374	97,806	97,811	83,527	99,571	81,200
End Stocks/ Usage (%)	25.4%	23.6%	22.5%	23.5%	20.9%	16.4%	16.5%	18.1%	18.4%	17.5%	14.6%	16.6%	13.3%

World Trade # (1000 MT)	24,000	30,000	31,000	34,000	35,000	42,000	40,000	39,000	37,000	39,000	46,000	49,300	59,300
World Trade # % of Use	5.6%	6.8%	6.9%	7.5%	7.5%	8.6%	7.9%	7.5%	7.0%	7.0%	8.0%	8.2%	9.7%
Change World Prod. (%)		-1.6%	3.8%	1.5%	1.2%	2.6%	7.7%	4.8%	0.1%	4.5%	0.2%	10.4%	-3.8%

End Stocks/ Trade (%)	457%	345%	327%	312%	280%	191%	208%	242%	264%	251%	182%	202%	137%

October-September Marketing Year
Imports (1000 MT)	23,612	30,645	31,572	36,029	33,926	42,599	43,126	43,234	40,763	43,320	50,020	54,511	63,586
Exports (1000 MT)	24,326	32,606	32,216	36,294	37,192	45,504	44,080	43,275	41,925	44,928	51,913	56,790	65,634
From U.S. Imports (1000 MT)	7,891	10,002	14,517	15,181	14,982	22,251	20,564	18,898	15,048	19,011	19,487	18,864	33,769
U.S. as % Total	33%	33%	46%	42%	44%	52%	48%	44%	37%	44%	39%	35%	53%

World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries.
# Oct/Sep Trade Year, excludes intra-EC trade.

Part 2 (1973/74-1985/86)
Back to Part 1 (1960/61-1972/73) To Part 3 (1986/87-1998/99)

Year	1973/74	1974/75	1975/76	1976/77	1977/78	1978/79	1979/80	1980/81	1981/82	1982/83	1983/84	1984/85	1985/86
Area Harvest (1000 HA)	334,836	332,729	339,376	342,026	343,547	340,844	340,943	340,613	348,589	338,052	332,989	334,762	340,245
Yields (MT/HA)	1.97	1.87	1.89	2.02	2.01	2.18	2.16	2.12	2.18	2.29	2.04	2.41	2.45
Production (1000 MT)	659,384	622,656	641,025	692,048	691,067	744,196	735,314	723,320	758,741	775,206	677,734	806,253	833,728
Begin Stocks (1000 MT)	81,200	79,804	89,569	93,282	113,756	124,015	137,349	140,416	125,506	150,339	181,835	110,412	144,054
Total Supply (1000 MT)	740,584	702,460	730,594	785,330	804,823	868,211	872,663	863,736	884,247	925,545	859,569	916,665	977,782

Mktng. Year Imports (1000 MT)	76,165	68,726	83,529	85,898	90,571	96,839	110,933	110,349	114,870	104,014	99,680	111,597	96,004
Mktng. Year Exports (1000 MT)	81,637	69,936	87,061	88,473	94,700	98,940	107,091	118,749	109,555	96,338	104,247	111,682	94,589

Disappearance Feed (1000 MT)	425,361	379,829	395,296	421,617	426,389	466,719	478,473	469,236	482,831	499,138	489,400	510,200	521,500
Disappear. Non- Feed (1000 MT)	235,419	233,062	242,016	249,957	254,419	264,143	253,774	270,026	251,077	244,572	259,800	262,411	246,887
Disappearance Total (1000 MT)	660,780	612,891	637,312	671,574	680,808	730,862	732,247	739,262	733,908	743,710	749,200	772,611	768,387

End Stocks (1000 MT)	79,804	89,569	93,282	113,756	124,015	137,349	140,416	125,506	150,339	181,835	110,412	144,054	209,395
End Stocks/ Usage (%)	12.1%	14.6%	14.6%	16.9%	18.2%	18.8%	19.2%	17.0%	20.5%	24.4%	14.7%	18.6%	27.3%

World Trade # (1000 MT)	71,100	65,000	75,200	83,900	89,000	93,100	99,500	107,900	97,400	89,800	93,100	100,000	82,700
World Trade # % of Use	10.8%	10.6%	11.8%	12.5%	13.1%	12.7%	13.6%	14.6%	13.3%	12.1%	12.4%	12.9%	10.8%
Change World Prod. (%)	11.0%	-5.6%	3.0%	8.0%	-0.1%	7.7%	-1.2%	-1.6%	4.9%	2.2%	-12.6%	19.0%	3.4%

End Stocks/ Trade (%)	112%	138%	124%	136%	139%	148%	141%	116%	154%	202%	119%	144%	253%

October-September Marketing Year
Imports (1000 MT)	75,169	70,087	82,326	86,260	85,919	94,629	105,879	116,430	108,715	100,159	103,040	110,709	94,103
Exports (1000 MT)	79,458	71,822	83,524	89,419	96,967	100,895	107,281	116,607	108,030	104,805	105,190	110,982	95,394
From U.S. Imports (1000 MT)	43,490	37,379	46,744	54,685	52,083	58,101	70,395	70,603	58,961	54,102	55,964	56,934	37,242
U.S. as % Total	58%	53%	57%	63%	61%	61%	66%	61%	54%	54%	54%	51%	40%

World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries.
# Oct/Sep Trade Year, excludes intra-EC trade.

Part 3 (1986/87-1998/99)
Back to Part 1 (1960/61-1972/73) Back to Part 2 (1973/74-1985/86)

Year	1986/87	1987/88	1988/89	1989/90	1990/91	1991/92	1992/93	1993/94	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99
Area Harvest (1000 HA)	336,611	324,223	324,214	321,797	316,236	321,778	323,771	317,500	323,200	313,600	322,800	312,200	308,600
Yields (MT/HA)	2.45	2.43	2.23	2.47	2.62	2.52	2.69	2.52	2.70	2.56	2.81	2.82	2.85334
Production (1000 MT)	824,500	787,019	722,910	793,495	828,603	810,303	871,762	799,496	873,400	802,000	906,590	881,270	880,540
Begin Stocks (1000 MT)	209,395	235,736	212,453	147,238	123,233	134,841	135,600	163,600	123,845	137,200	98,400	128,090	136,390
Total Supply (1000 MT)	1,033,895	1,022,755	935,363	940,733	951,836	945,144	1,007,362	963,096	997,245	939,200	1,004,990	1,009,360	1,016,930

Mktng. Year Imports (1000 MT)	93,802	99,516	111,678	116,702	97,272	112,644	99,191	96,033	105,166	101,642	130,730	100,430	100,920
Mktng. Year Exports (1000 MT)	96,844	103,259	112,187	116,574	101,916	106,976	106,753	99,210	103,564	109,187	107,090	103,160	102,980

Disappearance Feed (1000 MT)	538,800	549,300	520,900	543,300	532,700	539,300	552,200	544,800	571,500	545,900	575,170	579,290	576,480
Disappear. Non- Feed (1000 MT)	259,356	261,200	267,225	274,400	284,303	270,300	291,500	294,400	288,300	294,900	302,750	293,670	298,730
Disappearance Total (1000 MT)	798,156	810,500	788,125	817,700	817,003	809,600	843,700	839,200	859,800	840,800	877,920	872,960	875,210

End Stocks (1000 MT)	235,736	212,453	147,238	123,233	134,841	135,600	163,600	123,845	137,200	98,400	128,090	136,390	141,720
End Stocks/ Usage (%)	29.5%	26.2%	18.7%	15.1%	16.5%	16.7%	19.4%	14.8%	16.0%	11.7%	14.6%	15.6%	16.2%

World Trade # (1000 MT)	82,800	89,600	98,000	104,700	89,100	95,600	91,900	85,300	98,500	88,300	93,400	86,600	87,500
World Trade # % of Use	10.4%	11.1%	12.4%	12.8%	10.9%	11.8%	10.9%	10.2%	11.5%	10.5%	10.6%	9.9%	10.0%
Change World Prod. (%)	-1.1%	-4.5%	-8.1%	9.8%	4.4%	-2.2%	7.6%	-8.3%	9.2%	-8.2%	13.0%	-2.8%	-0.1%

End Stocks/ Trade (%)	285%	237%	150%	118%	151%	142%	178%	145%	139%	111%	137%	157%	1.62

October-September Marketing Year
Imports (1000 MT)	94,095	102,337	112,501	114,678	100,101	108,362	101,534	95,471	105,440	99,790	105,458	99,146	100176
Exports (1000 MT)	96,830	102,751	111,245	117,022	100,524	110,166	104,300	97,474	109,040	103,621	107,443	100,944	101993
From U.S. Imports (1000 MT)	46,088	47,171	45,325	52,460	42,794	43,692	48,730	38,847	64,482	57,468	49,635	48,196	51073.7
U.S. as % Total	49%	46%	40%	46%	43%	40%	48%	41%	61%	58%	47%	49%	0.5098

World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries.
# Oct/Sep Trade Year, excludes intra-EC trade.

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Last Updated on 2/25/99
By Agricultural Economics


RISK MANAGEMENT
CORN *marketing resources* SOYBEAN marketing resources	DISCLAIMER *please read* HOME risk management
Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr. E-mail: wtierney@agecon.ksu.edu Copyright 1998. All rights reserved by author.
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University.