Actual vs. "Trend"

Actual vs. "Trend"
Current: October 17, 1998

Year	Revised Planted Acres (mln acres)	Revised Harvest Acres (mln acres)	Revised Prod. (mln bu)	Revised Yield (bu/ac)	Simple Trend Pred. Yield (bu/ac)	+ Std Err % Pred Predctd Yield (bu/ac)	- Std Err % Pred Predctd Yield (bu/ac)	Revised Yield Deviate Trend (%)
1950	82.9	72.4	2,764	38.2	39.0	43.5	34.6	-2.1%
1951	83.3	71.2	2,629	36.9	41.0	45.6	36.3	-9.9%
1952	82.2	71.4	2,981	41.8	42.9	47.8	38.0	-2.6%
1953	81.6	70.7	2,882	40.7	44.9	50.0	39.8	-9.3%
1954	82.2	68.7	2,708	39.4	46.8	52.1	41.5	-15.8%
1955	80.9	68.5	2,873	42.0	48.8	54.3	43.2	-13.8%
1956	77.8	64.9	3,075	47.4	50.7	56.5	44.9	-6.5%
1957	73.2	63.1	3,045	48.3	52.6	58.6	46.7	-8.2%
1958	73.4	63.5	3,356	52.8	54.6	60.8	48.4	-3.3%
1959	82.7	72.1	3,825	53.1	56.5	62.9	50.1	-6.1%
1960	81.4	71.4	3,907	54.7	58.5	65.1	51.8	-6.5%
1961	65.9	57.6	3,598	62.4	60.4	67.3	53.6	3.3%
1962	65.0	55.7	3,606	64.7	62.4	69.4	55.3	3.7%
1963	68.8	59.2	4,019	67.9	64.3	71.6	57.0	5.6%
1964	65.8	55.4	3,484	62.9	66.3	73.8	58.7	-5.1%
1965	65.2	55.4	4,103	74.1	68.2	75.9	60.5	8.7%
1966	66.3	57.0	4,168	73.1	70.1	78.1	62.2	4.2%
1967	71.2	60.7	4,860	80.1	72.1	80.3	63.9	11.1%
1968	65.1	56.0	4,450	79.5	74.0	82.4	65.6	7.4%
1969	64.3	54.6	4,687	85.9	76.0	84.6	67.3	13.1%
1970	66.9	57.4	4,152	72.4	77.9	86.8	69.1	-7.1%
1971	74.2	64.1	5,646	88.1	79.9	88.9	70.8	10.3%
1972	67.1	57.5	5,580	97.0	81.8	91.1	72.5	18.6%
1973	72.3	62.1	5,671	91.3	83.8	93.3	74.2	9.0%
1974	77.9	65.4	4,701	71.9	85.7	95.4	76.0	-16.1%
1975	78.7	67.6	5,841	86.4	87.6	97.6	77.7	-1.4%
1976	84.6	71.5	6,289	88.0	89.6	99.8	79.4	-1.8%
1977	84.3	71.6	6,505	90.8	91.5	101.9	81.1	-0.8%
1978	81.7	71.9	7,268	101.0	93.5	104.1	82.9	8.1%
1979	81.4	72.4	7,928	109.5	95.4	106.3	84.6	14.8%
1980	84.0	73.0	6,639	91.0	97.4	108.4	86.3	-6.5%
1981	84.1	74.5	8,119	108.9	99.3	110.6	88.0	9.7%
1982	81.9	72.7	8,235	113.2	101.3	112.7	89.8	11.8%
1983	60.2	51.5	4,174	81.1	103.2	114.9	91.5	-21.4%
1984	80.5	71.9	7,672	106.7	105.1	117.1	93.2	1.5%
1985	83.4	75.2	8,875	118.0	107.1	119.2	94.9	10.2%
1986	76.6	68.9	8,226	119.4	109.0	121.4	96.6	9.5%
1987	66.2	59.5	7,131	119.8	111.0	123.6	98.4	8.0%
1988	67.7	58.3	4,929	84.6	112.9	125.7	100.1	-25.1%
1989	72.3	64.8	7,532	116.3	114.9	127.9	101.8	1.2%
1990	74.2	67.0	7,934	118.5	116.8	130.1	103.5	1.5%
1991	76.0	68.8	7,475	108.6	118.8	132.2	105.3	-8.5%
1992	79.3	72.1	9,477	131.5	120.7	134.4	107.0	8.9%
1993	73.2	62.9	6,336	100.7	122.6	136.6	108.7	-17.9%
1994	79.2	72.9	10,103	138.6	124.6	138.7	110.4	11.3%
1995	71.2	65.0	7,374	113.5	126.5	140.9	112.2	-10.3%
1996	79.5	73.1	9,293	127.1	128.5	143.1	113.9	-1.1%
1997	80.2	73.7	9,366	127.0	130.4	145.2	115.6	-2.6%
1998 p	80.8	73.8	9,743	132.0	132.4	147.4	117.3	-0.3%

1999	_____	_____	_____	_____	134.3	149.6	119.1	_____

Report and Yield on the October 9 crop report

Last Updated on 2/16/99
By Agricultural Economics


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Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr. E-mail: wtierney@agecon.ksu.edu Copyright 1998. All rights reserved by author.
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University.