Colby (corn)


RISK MANAGEMENT
CORN *marketing resources* SOYBEAN marketing resources	DISCLAIMER *please read* HOME risk management
Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr. E-mail: wtierney@agecon.ksu.edu Copyright 1998. All rights reserved by author.
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University.

MONTHLY AVERAGE CORN PRICE (AVERAGE OF WEDNESDAY PRICES)
(Cents/Bu.)
YEAR	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	AVG
=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=
1983	301	308	313	305	303	295	300	310	311	323	325	310	309
1984	262	259	264	260	260	260	259	265	265	265	265	245	261
1985	233	215	230	235	234	230	231	236	248	245	220	176	228
1986	140	145	150	153	143	141	146	152	171	175	171	148	153
1987	148	164	164	168	170	178	181	185	185	220	277	261	192
1988	261	265	248	249	248	243	248	240	241	239	233	219	244
1989	220	214	213	212	215	217	221	241	252	258	249	238	229
1990	209	206	212	217	217	217	226	234	233	233	232	225	222
1991	228	225	221	226	235	242	248	239	251	249	234	219	235
1992	219	199	202	200	200	204	210	218	212	203	219	220	209
1993	214	232	262	279	284	278	267	254	257	266	229	218	253
1994	206	197	200	211	213	214	223	228	244	266	290	281	231
1995	299	317	316	336	350	372	389	444	477	470	469	439	390
1996	301	262	237	237	234	248	265	264	261	254	239	252	254
1997	247	249	245	242	244	241	242	225	223	221	212	182	231
1998	161	174	179	177	####	####	####	####	####	####	####	####	####
1999
2000

SEASONAL INDEX (MONTHLY PRICE AS A PERCENT OF SEASON AVERAGE PRICE)

YEAR	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	AVG
=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=
1983	97%	100%	101%	99%	98%	96%	97%	100%	101%	105%	105%	100%	100%
1984	100%	99%	101%	100%	100%	100%	99%	102%	102%	102%	102%	94%	100%
1985	102%	94%	101%	103%	103%	101%	102%	103%	109%	108%	97%	77%	100%
1986	92%	95%	98%	100%	94%	92%	95%	99%	112%	114%	112%	96%	100%
1987	77%	85%	86%	88%	89%	93%	94%	97%	97%	115%	145%	136%	100%
1988	107%	108%	101%	102%	101%	99%	101%	98%	99%	98%	95%	90%	100%
1989	96%	93%	93%	93%	94%	95%	97%	105%	110%	113%	109%	104%	100%
1990	94%	93%	96%	98%	98%	98%	102%	105%	105%	105%	104%	101%	100%
1991	97%	96%	94%	96%	100%	103%	106%	102%	107%	106%	100%	93%	100%
1992	105%	95%	97%	96%	96%	97%	101%	104%	102%	97%	105%	105%	100%
1993	85%	92%	103%	110%	112%	110%	106%	100%	102%	105%	91%	86%	100%
1994	89%	85%	86%	91%	92%	93%	97%	99%	106%	115%	125%	122%	100%
1995	77%	81%	81%	86%	90%	95%	100%	114%	122%	121%	120%	113%	100%
1996	118%	103%	93%	93%	92%	97%	104%	104%	102%	100%	94%	99%	100%
1997	107%	108%	106%	105%	105%	104%	105%	97%	96%	96%	92%	79%	100%
1998	####	####	####	####									####
1999
2000

MONTHLY AVERAGE NEARBY CORN BASIS (AVERAGE OF WEDNESDAY PRICES)
(Cents/Bu.)
YEAR	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	AVG
=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=	=
1983	-59	-39	-37	-30	-29	-31	-48	-45	-38	-25	16	14	-29
1984	-25	-20	-9	-10	-11	-8	-17	-18	-12	-11	17	16	-9
1985	13	-9	-9	-12	-14	-9	0	4	10	12	43	16	4
1986	-26	-24	-21	-14	-15	-8	-13	-15	-18	-16	-1	-10	-15
1987	-27	-20	-19	-22	-26	-23	-26	-19	-28	-50	-40	-31	-27
1988	-33	-25	-25	-30	-30	-27	-32	-28	-30	-22	-15	-9	-25
1989	-11	-25	-25	-28	-25	-27	-33	-32	-33	-28	-22	-14	-25
1990	-21	-25	-12	-19	-19	-23	-29	-22	-15	-8	-4	-21	-18
1991	-25	-25	-22	-26	-22	-23	-25	-15	-8	-8	-5	0	-17
1992	0	-10	-10	-20	-18	-9	-14	-11	-17	-16	-23	-19	-14
1993	-23	-17	-12	-16	-18	-15	-19	-15	-8	-6	6	-1	-12
1994	-15	-18	-16	-19	-20	-19	-23	-20	-16	-8	1	0	-14
1995	-3	-5	-13	-15	-13	-6	-1	-7	-2	6	58	75	6
1996	-22	-23	-31	-28	-32	-33	-35	-36	-18	-13	-5	-11	-24
1997	-19	-30	-30	-34	-29	-27	-32	-25	-26	-22	-25	-25	-27
1998	-47	-47	-41	-45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-15
1999
2000


		CASH PRICES						NEARBY BASIS
		10 YEAR SEAS. INDEX						10 YEAR SEASONAL
				AVG	AVG					AVG	AVG
			STD	+STD	-STD	THIS			STD	+STD	-STD	THIS
		AVG	DEV	DEV	DEV	YEAR		AVG	DEV	DEV	DEV	YEAR
MONTH		(% of Season Avg. Price)				(c/bu)		(Cents/Bu.)
=		=	=	=	=	=		=	=	=	=	=
SEP		97%	12%	109%	86%	161		-17	10	-8	-27	-47
OCT		95%	8%	104%	87%	174		-20	7	-13	-28	-47
NOV		95%	7%	102%	88%	179		-20	8	-12	-27	-41
DEC		97%	7%	104%	90%	177		-23	6	-17	-30	-45
JAN		98%	7%	105%	91%			-23	6	-17	-28
FEB		99%	5%	104%	94%			-21	8	-13	-29
MAR		102%	3%	105%	98%			-24	10	-14	-34
APR		103%	5%	107%	98%			-21	9	-12	-30
MAY		105%	7%	112%	98%			-17	9	-8	-27
JUN		105%	8%	113%	98%			-12	9	-3	-22
JUL		103%	11%	115%	92%			-3	23	19	-26
AUG		99%	12%	111%	87%			-3	27	25	-30