Corn Production Estimates vs. Final Production

	Crop Estimates							Annual Crop Production Relative to Monthly Est.
Year	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Annual Prod.	Revised Prod.	Revised Yield	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	_Nov._
	(Million Bu)				(Mln Bu)	(Mln Bu)	(Bu/Ac)	(Percent)
--	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
1950	3,168	3,163	3,118	3,105	3,131	2,764	38.2	-1.2%	-1.0%	0.4%	0.8%
1951	3,207	3,131	3,105	3,088	2,941	2,629	36.9	-8.3%	-6.1%	-5.3%	-4.8%
1952	3,136	3,185	3,256	3,303	3,307	2,981	41.8	5.5%	3.8%	1.6%	0.1%
1953	3,330	3,216	3,196	3,180	3,176	2,882	40.7	-4.6%	-1.2%	-0.6%	-0.1%
1954	2,824	2,973	2,950	2,939	2,965	2,708	39.4	5.0%	-0.3%	0.5%	0.9%
1955	3,478	3,113	3,118	3,182	3,241	2,873	42.0	-6.8%	4.1%	3.9%	1.9%
1956	3,144	3,336	3,369	3,412	3,451	3,075	47.4	9.8%	3.4%	2.4%	1.1%
1957	3,066	3,195	3,305	3,332	3,403	3,045	48.3	11.0%	6.5%	3.0%	2.1%
1958	3,487	3,589	3,686	3,786	3,800	3,356	52.8	9.0%	5.9%	3.1%	0.4%
1959	4,173	4,382	4,429	4,402	4,361	3,825	53.1	4.5%	-0.5%	-1.5%	-0.9%
1960	4,112	4,182	4,258	4,379	3,891	3,907	54.7	-5.4%	-7.0%	-8.6%	- 11.1%
1961	3,352	3,520	3,527	3,549	3,624	3,598	62.4	8.1%	3.0%	2.8%	2.1%
1962	3,550	3,485	3,512	3,590	3,644	3,606	64.7	2.6%	4.6%	3.8%	1.5%
1963	3,862	3,939	4,009	4,033	4,081	4,019	67.9	5.7%	3.6%	1.8%	1.2%
1964	3,885	3,640	3,564	3,541	3,549	3,484	62.9	-8.6%	-2.5%	-0.4%	0.2%
1965	4,096	4,144	4,179	4,128	4,171	4,103	74.1	1.8%	0.7%	-0.2%	1.0%
1966	3,981	4,090	4,097	4,130	4,103	4,167	73.1	3.1%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.7%
1967	4,652	4,694	4,717	4,696	4,722	4,860	80.1	1.5%	0.6%	0.1%	0.6%
1968	4,556	4,636	4,587	4,440	4,375	4,450	79.5	-4.0%	-5.6%	-4.6%	-1.5%
1969	4,310	4,312	4,350	4,444	4,578	4,687	85.9	6.2%	6.2%	5.2%	3.0%
1970	4,693	4,403	4,188	4,104	4,110	4,152	72.4	-12.4%	-6.7%	-1.9%	0.1%
1971	5,345	5,266	5,400	5,552	5,540	5,646	88.1	3.6%	5.2%	2.6%	-0.2%
1972	4,948	5,124	5,266	5,400	5,553	5,580	97.0	12.2%	8.4%	5.5%	2.8%
1973	5,661	5,768	5,763	5,678	5,643	5,671	91.3	-0.3%	-2.2%	-2.1%	-0.6%
1974	4,966	4,995	4,718	4,621	4,651	4,701	71.9	-6.3%	-6.9%	-1.4%	0.6%
1975	5,850	5,687	5,737	5,804	5,767	5,841	86.4	-1.4%	1.4%	0.5%	-0.6%
1976	6,187	5,892	5,865	6,063	6,216	6,289	88.0	0.5%	5.5%	6.0%	2.5%
1977	6,092	6,229	6,303	6,367	6,357	6,505	90.8	4.3%	2.1%	0.9%	-0.2%
1978	6,503	6,798	6,824	6,890	7,082	7,268	101.0	8.9%	4.2%	3.8%	2.8%
1979	7,109	7,268	7,390	7,586	7,763	7,928	109.5	9.2%	6.8%	5.0%	2.3%
1980	6,646	6,534	6,467	6,461	6,647	6,639	91.0	0.0%	1.7%	2.8%	2.9%
1981	7,735	7,940	8,081	8,097	8,201	8,119	108.9	6.0%	3.3%	1.5%	1.3%
1982	8,315	8,319	8,315	8,330	8,397	8,235	113.2	1.0%	0.9%	1.0%	0.8%
1983	5,237	4,390	4,259	4,121	4,166	4,174	81.1	-20.5%	-5.1%	-2.2%	1.1%
1984	7,668	7,552	7,498	7,527	7,656	7,672	106.7	-0.2%	1.4%	2.1%	1.7%
1985	8,266	8,469	8,603	8,717	8,865	8,875	118.0	7.2%	4.7%	3.0%	1.7%
1986	8,316	8,268	8,220	8,223	8,253	8,226	119.4	-0.8%	-0.2%	0.4%	0.4%
1987	7,231	7,140	7,139	7,166	7,064	7,131	119.8	-2.3%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.4%
1988	4,479	4,462	4,553	4,671	4,921	4,929	84.6	9.9%	10.3%	8.1%	5.4%
1989	7,348	7,321	7,449	7,590	7,527	7,532	116.3	2.4%	2.8%	1.0%	-0.8%
1990	7,850	8,118	8,022	7,935	7,933	7,934	118.5	1.1%	-2.3%	-1.1%	0.0%
1991	7,418	7,295	7,479	7,486	7,474	7,475	108.6	0.8%	2.5%	-0.1%	-0.2%
1992	8,762	8,770	8,938	9,329	9,479	9,477	131.5	8.2%	8.1%	6.1%	1.6%
1993	7,423	7,229	6,962	6,503	6,344	6,336	100.7	-14.5%	-12.2%	-8.9%	-2.4%
1994	9,214	9,257	9,602	10,010	10,103	10,103	138.6	9.6%	9.1%	5.2%	0.9%
1995	8,122	7,832	7,541	7,343	7,374	7,374	113.5	-9.2%	-5.8%	-2.2%	0.4%
1996	8,695	8,804	9,012	9,265	9,293	9,293	127.1	6.9%	5.6%	3.1%	0.3%
1997	9,276	9,267	9,311	9,359	9,359	9,366	127.0	0.9%	1.0%	0.5%	0.0%
1998	9,592	9,738	9,743	____	____	____	127.0	____	____	____	____

	1950-97		Avg.					1.2%	1.3%	1.0%	0.4%
			Std Dev					7.0%	4.8%	3.4%	2.3%
			Max.					12.2%	10.3%	8.1%	5.4%
			Min.					-20.5%	-12.2%	-8.9%	- 11.1%

1999	____	____	____	____	____	____	____	____	____	____	____


RISK MANAGEMENT
CORN *marketing resources* SOYBEAN marketing resources	DISCLAIMER *please read* HOME risk management
Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr. E-mail: wtierney@agecon.ksu.edu Copyright 1998. All rights reserved by author.
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University.