Soybean Production Estimates vs. Final Production

Soybean Production Estimates vs. Final Production
Current: October 16, 1999

Year	Crop Estimates							Annual Crop Production Relative to Monthly Est.
	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Ann. Prod.	Revised Prod.	Revised Yield	_Aug._	Sept.	Oct.	_Nov._
	(Million Bu)				(Mln Bu)	(Mln Bu)	(Bu/Ac)	(Percent)
1950	271	275	275	281	287	299	21.7	5.9%	4.4%	4.4%	2.1%
1951	270	273	271	278	281	284	20.8	3.9%	2.8%	3.5%	0.9%
1952	264	276	286	289	292	299	20.7	10.5%	5.7%	2.0%	0.9%
1953	295	280	260	262	262	269	18.2	-11.1%	-6.3%	0.9%	0.1%
1954	304	325	331	338	343	341	20.0	12.8%	5.5%	3.6%	1.4%
1955	420	388	375	372	371	374	20.1	-11.6%	-4.3%	-1.0%	-0.2%
1956	443	462	470	457	456	449	21.8	2.9%	-1.3%	-3.0%	-0.2%
1957	428	459	487	491	480	483	23.2	12.1%	4.5%	-1.5%	-2.3%
1958	536	561	573	575	574	580	24.2	7.2%	2.4%	0.2%	-0.1%
1959	531	533	530	528	538	533	23.5	1.3%	0.9%	1.5%	1.9%
1960	548	566	562	560	559	555	23.5	2.0%	-1.3%	-0.6%	-0.2%
1961	683	720	711	701	693	679	25.1	1.5%	-3.7%	-2.5%	-1.1%
1962	703	669	672	669	675	669	24.2	-4.0%	0.9%	0.5%	0.9%
1963	723	728	727	718	701	699	24.4	-3.0%	-3.6%	-3.5%	-2.3%
1964	748	704	699	702	700	701	22.8	-6.4%	-0.6%	0.1%	-0.3%
1965	864	867	862	853	844	846	24.5	-2.3%	-2.7%	-2.1%	-1.1%
1966	861	926	927	929	931	928	25.4	8.1%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%
1967	999	1,003	994	985	973	976	24.5	-2.6%	-3.0%	-2.1%	-1.2%
1968	1,064	1,080	1,066	1,080	1,080	1,107	26.7	1.5%	0.0%	1.3%	0.0%
1969	1,061	1,055	1,070	1,095	1,117	1,133	27.4	5.3%	5.9%	4.4%	2.0%
1970	1,114	1,133	1,135	1,134	1,136	1,127	26.7	2.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
1971	1,236	1,186	1,175	1,200	1,169	1,176	27.5	-5.4%	-1.4%	-0.5%	-2.6%
1972	1,270	1,286	1,317	1,351	1,276	1,271	27.8	0.5%	-0.8%	-3.1%	-5.6%
1973	1,540	1,599	1,588	1,575	1,567	1,548	27.8	1.8%	-2.0%	-1.3%	-0.5%
1974	1,314	1,316	1,262	1,244	1,233	1,216	23.7	-6.2%	-6.3%	-2.3%	-0.9%
1975	1,458	1,442	1,474	1,520	1,521	1,548	28.9	4.3%	5.5%	3.2%	0.1%
1976	1,344	1,274	1,250	1,252	1,265	1,289	26.1	-5.9%	-0.7%	1.2%	1.0%
1977	1,602	1,644	1,647	1,683	1,716	1,767	30.6	7.1%	4.4%	4.2%	2.0%
1978	1,765	1,772	1,792	1,810	1,843	1,869	29.4	4.4%	4.0%	2.8%	1.8%
1979	2,129	2,174	2,213	2,236	2,268	2,261	32.1	6.5%	4.3%	2.5%	1.4%
1980	1,880	1,831	1,757	1,775	1,817	1,798	26.5	-3.4%	-0.8%	3.4%	2.4%
1981	2,018	2,089	2,107	2,077	2,030	1,989	30.1	0.6%	-2.8%	-3.7%	-2.3%
1982	2,293	2,314	2,300	2,300	2,277	2,190	31.5	-0.7%	-1.6%	-1.0%	-1.0%
1983	1,844	1,535	1,517	1,537	1,595	1,636	26.2	-13.5%	3.9%	5.1%	3.8%
1984	2,035	2,028	1,972	1,902	1,861	1,861	28.1	-8.6%	-8.2%	-5.6%	-2.2%
1985	1,959	2,063	2,108	2,129	2,099	2,099	34.1	7.1%	1.7%	-0.4%	-1.4%
1986	1,980	1,980	1,992	2,009	2,007	1,943	33.3	1.4%	1.4%	0.8%	-0.1%
1987	2,000	1,957	1,968	1,960	1,905	1,938	33.9	-4.8%	-2.7%	-3.2%	-2.8%
1988	1,474	1,472	1,501	1,512	1,539	1,549	27.0	4.4%	4.6%	2.5%	1.8%
1989	1,905	1,889	1,926	1,937	1,924	1,924	32.3	1.0%	1.9%	-0.1%	-0.7%
1990	1,836	1,835	1,824	1,904	1,922	1,926	34.1	4.7%	4.7%	5.4%	0.9%
1991	1,869	1,816	1,934	1,962	1,986	1,987	34.2	6.3%	9.4%	2.7%	1.2%
1992	2,079	2,085	2,108	2,167	2,197	2,190	37.6	5.7%	5.4%	4.2%	1.4%
1993	1,902	1,909	1,891	1,834	1,809	1,871	32.6	-4.9%	-5.2%	-4.3%	-1.4%
1994	2,282	2,316	2,458	2,523	2,558	2,517	41.4	12.1%	10.4%	4.1%	1.4%
1995	2,246	2,285	2,191	2,182	2,152	2,177	35.3	-4.2%	-5.8%	-1.8%	-1.4%
1996	2,300	2,270	2,346	2,403	2,382	2,382	37.6	3.6%	4.9%	1.6%	-0.9%
1997	2,744	2,746	2,721	2,736	2,727	2,703	38.8	-0.6%	-0.7%	0.2%	-0.3%
1998	2,825	2,909	2,769	_____	_____	____	____	____	____	____	____

	1950-97		Avg.					1.0%	0.7%	0.5%	-0.1%
			Std Dev					6.2%	4.2%	2.7%	1.7%
			Max.					12.8%	10.4%	5.4%	3.8%
			Min.					-13.5%	-8.2%	-5.6%	-5.6%

1999	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	____	____	____	____	____	____

Last Updated on 2/20/99
By Agricultural Economics


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Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr. E-mail: wtierney@agecon.ksu.edu Copyright 1998. All rights reserved by author.
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