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Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr.   E-mail: wtierney@agecon.ksu.edu
Copyright 1998. All rights reserved by author.
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University.

 

Actual vs. "Trend"
Current: October 19, 1998 

Year Revised
Planted
Acres
(mln acres)		 Revised
Harvest
Acres
(mln acres)		 Revised Prod.
(mln bu)		 Revised Yield
(bu/ac)		 Poly-
Nomial
Trend
Pred. Yield
(bu/ac)		 + Std Err
% Pred
Predctd Yield
(bu/ac)		 - Std Err
% Pred
Predctd Yield
(bu/ac)		 Revised
Yield
Deviate Trend
(%)
1950 15.6 13.8 299 21.7 19.4 20.9 18.0 12%
1951 15.2 13.6 284 20.8 20.0 21.5 18.5 4%
1952 16.0 14.4 299 20.7 20.5 22.0 18.9 1%
1953 16.4 14.8 269 18.2 20.9 22.5 19.3 -13%
1954 18.5 17.0 341 20.0 21.4 23.0 19.8 -6%
1955 19.7 18.6 374 20.1 21.8 23.4 20.1 -8%
1956 21.7 20.6 449 21.8 22.2 23.8 20.5 -2%
1957 21.9 20.9 483 23.2 22.6 24.2 20.9 3%
1958 25.1 24.0 580 24.2 22.9 24.6 21.2 6%
1959 23.3 22.6 533 23.5 23.2 25.0 21.5 1%
1960 24.4 23.7 555 23.5 23.6 25.3 21.8 0%
1961 27.8 27.0 679 25.1 23.9 25.7 22.1 5%
1962 28.4 27.6 669 24.2 24.2 26.0 22.4 0%
1963 29.5 28.6 699 24.4 24.5 26.3 22.6 0%
1964 31.7 30.8 701 22.8 24.7 26.6 22.9 -8%
1965 35.2 34.4 846 24.5 25.0 26.9 23.1 -2%
1966 37.3 36.5 928 25.4 25.3 27.2 23.4 0%
1967 40.8 39.8 976 24.5 25.5 27.5 23.6 -4%
1968 42.3 41.4 1,107 26.7 25.8 27.7 23.9 3%
1969 42.5 41.3 1,133 27.4 26.1 28.0 24.1 5%
1970 43.1 42.2 1,127 26.7 26.3 28.3 24.3 1%
1971 43.5 42.7 1,176 27.5 26.6 28.6 24.6 4%
1972 46.9 45.7 1,271 27.8 26.8 28.8 24.8 4%
1973 56.5 55.7 1,548 27.8 27.1 29.1 25.0 3%
1974 52.5 51.3 1,216 23.7 27.4 29.4 25.3 -13%
1975 54.6 53.6 1,548 28.9 27.6 29.7 25.6 5%
1976 50.3 49.4 1,289 26.1 27.9 30.0 25.8 -7%
1977 59.0 57.8 1,767 30.6 28.2 30.3 26.1 8%
1978 64.7 63.7 1,869 29.4 28.5 30.7 26.4 3%
1979 71.4 70.3 2,261 32.1 28.8 31.0 26.7 11%
1980 69.9 67.8 1,798 26.5 29.2 31.4 27.0 -9%
1981 67.5 66.2 1,989 30.1 29.5 31.8 27.3 2%
1982 70.9 69.4 2,190 31.5 29.9 32.2 27.7 5%
1983 63.8 62.5 1,636 26.2 30.3 32.6 28.0 -14%
1984 67.8 66.1 1,861 28.1 30.7 33.0 28.4 -9%
1985 63.1 61.6 2,099 34.1 31.2 33.5 28.8 9%
1986 60.4 58.3 1,943 33.3 31.6 34.0 29.2 5%
1987 58.2 57.2 1,938 33.9 32.1 34.5 29.7 6%
1988 58.8 57.4 1,549 27.0 32.6 35.1 30.2 -17%
1989 60.8 59.5 1,924 32.3 33.2 35.7 30.7 -3%
1990 57.8 56.5 1,926 34.1 33.8 36.3 31.2 1%
1991 59.2 58.0 1,987 34.2 34.4 36.9 31.8 0%
1992 59.2 58.2 2,190 37.6 35.0 37.6 32.4 7%
1993 60.1 57.3 1,871 32.6 35.7 38.4 33.0 -9%
1994 61.7 60.9 2,517 41.4 36.4 39.1 33.7 14%
1995 62.6 61.6 2,177 35.3 37.2 39.9 34.4 -5%
1996 64.2 63.4 2,382 37.6 37.9 40.8 35.1 -1%
1997 70.9 69.6 2,703 38.8 38.8 41.7 35.9 0%
1998 p 72.7 71.6 2,769 38.7 39.7 42.6 36.7 -2%
                 
1999 _____ _____ _____ _____ 40.6 43.6 37.5 _____

Report and Yield on the October 9 crop report


Last Updated on 2/25/99
By Agricultural Economics

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