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Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr.   E-mail: wtierney@agecon.ksu.edu
Copyright 1998. All rights reserved by author.
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University.

 

Soybean Yield Estimates vs. Annual Yield
Current: December 28, 1998

 

Year

 Yield Estimates           Annual Yield Relative to
Monthly Estimate
Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Ann.
yield		   Revised
Yield		 Final
Prod.		   Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
(bushels/acre) (bu/ac)   (bu/ac)   (percent)
1950 20.9 21.2 21.3 21.7 21.6   21.7 299   3.3% 1.9% 1.4% -0.5%
1951 20.6 20.9 20.7 21.2 21.2   20.8 284   2.9% 1.4% 2.4% 0.0%
1952 19.0 19.8 20.6 20.8 20.7   20.7 299   8.9% 4.5% 0.5% -0.5%
1953 20.6 19.5 18.1 17.6 18.3   18.2 269   -11.2% -6.2% 1.1% 4.0%
1954 17.5 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.1   20.0 341   14.9% 7.5% 5.2% 3.1%
1955 22.8 21.1 20.4 20.2 20.0   20.1 374   -12.3% -5.2% -2.0% -1.0%
1956 21.1 22.0 22.4 21.8 21.8   21.8 449   3.3% -0.9% -2.7% 0.0%
1957 19.8 21.2 22.5 22.7 23.1   23.2 483   16.7% 9.0% 2.7% 1.8%
1958 22.0 24.0 24.5 24.6 24.2   24.2 580   10.0% 0.8% -1.2% -1.6%
1959 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.0 24.0   23.5 533   -0.8% -0.8% -0.4% 0.0%
1960 23.2 24.0 23.8 23.7 23.8   23.5 555   2.6% -0.8% 0.0% 0.4%
1961 25.2 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.3   25.1 679   0.4% -4.9% -3.4% -2.3%
1962 25.2 24.0 24.1 24.0 24.2   24.2 669   -4.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8%
1963 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.7 24.5   24.4 699   -1.6% -2.0% -2.0% -0.8%
1964 24.2 22.8 22.6 22.7 22.8   22.8 701   -5.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4%
1965 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.5   24.5 846   -1.6% -2.0% -1.6% -0.4%
1966 23.3 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.4   25.4 928   9.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8%
1967 24.9 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.5   24.5 976   -1.6% -2.0% -1.2% -0.4%
1968 26.0 26.4 26.0 26.4 26.7   26.7 1,107   2.7% 1.1% 2.7% 1.1%
1969 25.5 25.3 25.7 26.3 27.4   27.4 1,133   7.5% 8.3% 6.6% 4.2%
1970 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.8   26.7 1,127   0.0% -1.5% -1.8% -1.8%
1971 28.8 27.7 27.4 28.0 27.6   27.5 1,176   -4.2% -0.4% 0.7% -1.4%
1972 27.7 28.1 28.7 29.5 27.9   27.8 1,271   0.7% -0.7% -2.8% -5.4%
1973 27.4 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.8   27.8 1,548   1.5% -1.8% -1.8% -0.7%
1974 25.1 25.1 24.0 23.7 23.5   23.7 1,216   -6.4% -6.4% -2.1% -0.8%
1975 27.2 26.9 27.5 28.4 28.4   28.9 1,548   4.4% 5.6% 3.3% 0.0%
1976 27.2 25.8 25.3 25.3 25.6   26.1 1,289   -5.9% -0.8% 1.2% 1.2%
1977 27.5 28.3 28.3 28.9 29.6   30.6 1,767   7.6% 4.6% 4.6% 2.4%
1978 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 29.2   29.4 1,869   4.7% 4.3% 3.2% 2.1%
1979 30.3 30.9 31.5 31.8 32.2   32.1 2,261   6.3% 4.2% 2.2% 1.3%
1980 27.4 27.0 26.1 26.5 26.8   26.5 1,798   -2.2% -0.7% 2.7% 1.1%
1981 30.2 31.2 31.5 31.0 30.4   30.1 1,989   0.7% -2.6% -3.5% -1.9%
1982 32.3 32.6 32.4 32.4 32.2   31.5 2,190   -0.3% -1.2% -0.6% -0.6%
1983 29.7 24.9 24.7 25.0 25.7   26.2 1,636   -13.5% 3.2% 4.0% 2.8%
1984 30.5 30.3 29.5 28.5 28.2   28.1 1,861   -7.5% -6.9% -4.4% -1.1%
1985 31.5 33.2 33.9 34.2 34.1   34.1 2,099   8.3% 2.7% 0.6% -0.3%
1986 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.8 33.8   33.3 1,943   2.7% 2.1% 1.5% 0.0%
1987 34.7 34.0 34.2 34.1 33.7   33.9 1,938   -2.9% -0.9% -1.5% -1.2%
1988 26.0 25.9 26.4 26.6 26.8   27.0 1,549   3.1% 3.5% 1.5% 0.8%
1989 32.3 32.0 32.6 32.8 32.4   32.3 1,924   0.3% 1.3% -0.6% -1.2%
1990 32.5 32.4 32.3 33.7 34.0   34.1 1,926   4.6% 4.9% 5.3% 0.9%
1991 31.8 31.0 33.0 33.5 34.3   34.2 1,987   7.9% 10.6% 3.9% 2.4%
1992 35.8 35.9 36.3 37.3 37.6   37.6 2,190   5.0% 4.7% 3.6% 0.8%
1993 33.8 34.0 33.7 32.7 32.0   32.6 1,870   -5.3% -5.9% -5.0% -2.1%
1994 37.6 38.2 40.5 41.5 41.9   41.4 2,515   11.4% 9.7% 3.5% 1.0%
1995 36.4 37.0 35.5 35.4 34.9   35.3 2,174   -4.1% -5.7% -1.7% -1.4%
1996 36.3 35.8 37.0 37.9 37.6   37.6 2,380   3.6% 5.0% 1.6% -0.8%
1997 39.3 39.3 39.0 39.2 39.0   38.9 2,689   -0.8% -0.8% 0.0% -0.5%
1998 39.5 40.6 38.7 38.6 ____   ____ ____   ____ ____ ____ ____
                           
1950-97     Avg.             1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1%
      Std
Dev		             6.4% 4.3% 2.7% 1.7%
      Max.             16.7% 10.6% 6.6% 4.2%
      Min.             -13.5% -6.9% -5.0% -5.4%
                           
1999 ____ ____ ____ ____ ____   ____ ____   ____ ____ ____ ____

p USDA's November 10 yield projection


Last Updated on 3/31/99
By Agricultural Economics

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